27th March, 2020
Humanity must persist in this mayhem caused by COVID-19
The onset of lockdown has brought a certain anxiety in the population and it is being seen that people are upset (almost abusive) for those who have turned “coronavirus positive”. Recorded voice messages and video messages are actively being shared on social media to make those affected by infection as figures of hatred.
It is important to remember, all experts have said that whatever we do, most of us will some day get infected with corona virus (SARS COV-2). Lockdown can delay this infection but cannot rule it out.
On the other hand, US has started treating serious patients with the help of the plasma of those who recovered from corona virus. Earlier studies in China had shown significant success with this mode of treatment. So those who are infected and recovering today will become a source of treatment for those who suffer later.
Therefore, we must keep humanity intact in this time of natural calamity and help everyone for our own self. Like blood donation by strangers in case of emergency, we don’t know when will someone need help of a stranger who is infected with corona virus today.
References:
22nd March, 2020
Recently, following statistics have been published by Nature Medicine for Corona Virus based on observations from Wuhan.
Probability of getting symptoms after infection is said to be 0.5. That means, 50% of infected patients will get a symptomatic disease.
Basic reproduction number (R0) is 1.94 (95% CI 1.83-2.06). It means that every single person who has infection may transmit it to ~2 more people. This means the virus is highly infectious. Even with best efforts, this virus will ultimately infect around half of the world population.
Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate (sCFR) has been said to be 1.4%. That means 1.4% who are symptomatic will succumb to the viral infection. This is almost similar to current rates in India (1% – 4/322) as per data available on covidout.in.
The sCFR is higher (2.6%) in elderly (>59 years) as compared to 0.3% among those who are <30 years and 0.5% for those aged between 30-59. It means, that symptomatic patients that are older than 59 years of age are 5.1 times more likely to die than those between 30–59 years of age.
Incubation period for COVID-19 is said to be 5-6 days with a range from 1-14 days. That means, one may develop a disease in 5-6 days after contact with an infected person.
21st March, 2020
What are stages of COVID-19 disease?
Stage 1 | Imported Cases: These patients are those who have traveled to foreign countries that have ongoing virus infections and have come back to India.
ਸਟੇਜ 1 | ਆਯਾਤ ਮਰੀਜ਼: ਇਹ ਮਰੀਜ਼ ਓਹਨਾ ਦੇਸ਼ਾਂ ਦੀ ਯਾਤਰਾ ਤੋਂ ਭਾਰਤ ਵਾਪਿਸ ਆਏ ਹਨ ਜਿਹਨਾ ਵਿਚ ਪਹਿਲਾਂ ਤੋਂ ਕੋਰੋਨਾ ਵਾਇਰਸ ਫੈਲਿਆ ਹੋਇਆ ਹੈ I.
Stage 2 | Local Transmission: These patients are those cases who have come in contact with patients who have a travel history in countries with viral infections. India is currently in this stage and public health personnel are trying to isolate the cases and quarantine cases which have been in contact those that are diseased.
ਸਟੇਜ 2 | ਸਥਾਨਕ ਟਰਾਂਸਮਿਸ਼ਨ: ਇਹ ਉਹ ਕੇਸ ਹਨ ਜੋ ਵਿਦੇਸ਼ਾਂ ਤੋਂ ਵਾਪਿਸ ਆਏ ਮਰੀਜ਼ਾਂ ਦੇ ਸੰਪਰਕ ਵਿੱਚ ਆਏ ਹਨ I. ਭਾਰਤ ਇਸ ਸਮੇਂ ਇਸ ਪੜਾਅ ‘ਤੇ ਹੈ ਅਤੇ ਜਨਤਕ ਸਿਹਤ ਕਰਮਚਾਰੀ ਇਨ੍ਹਾਂ ਮਰੀਜ਼ਾਂ ਨੂੰ ਸਮਾਜ ਤੋਂ ਅਲੱਗ ਕਰਨ ਦੀ ਕੋਸ਼ਿਸ਼ ਕਰ ਰਹੇ ਹਨ ਤਾਂ ਕਿ ਵਾਇਰਸ ਨੂੰ ਫੈਲਣ ਤੋਂ ਰੋਕਿਆ ਜਾ ਸਕੇ I.
Stage 3 | Community Transmission: Community transmission is when a patient not exposed to any infected person or one who has traveled to any of the affected countries tests positive. Large areas get affected when community transmission takes place.
ਸਟੇਜ 3 | ਕਮਿਊਨਟੀ ਟ੍ਰਾਂਸਮਿਸ਼ਨ: ਕਮਿਊਨਟੀ ਟ੍ਰਾਂਸਮਿਸ਼ਨ ਉਦੋਂ ਹੁੰਦੀ ਹੈ ਜਦੋਂ ਵਿਦੇਸ਼ ਤੋਂ ਵਾਪਿਸ ਆਏ ਮਰੀਜ਼ਾਂ ਦੇ ਸੰਪਰਕ ਤੋਂ ਬਿਨਾ ਵੀ ਵਾਇਰਸ ਆਮ ਲੋਕਾਂ ਵਿਚ ਫੈਲਣ ਲੱਗ ਜਾਂਦੀ ਹੈ I. ਜਦੋਂ ਕਮਿਊਨਟੀ ਟ੍ਰਾਂਸਮਿਸ਼ਨ ਹੁੰਦੀ ਹੈ ਤਾਂ ਵੱਡੇ ਖੇਤਰ ਪ੍ਰਭਾਵਿਤ ਹੁੰਦੇ ਹਨ ਤੇ ਇੰਨੀ ਸੰਖ੍ਯਾ ਵਿਚ ਇਕ ਸਾਥ ਮਰੀਜ਼ਾਂ ਦਾ ਇਲਾਜ਼ ਮੁਸ਼ਕਿਲ ਹੋ ਜਾਂਦਾ ਹੈ I.
Stage 4 | Epidemic: This is the last and the worst stage where the disease take the shape of an epidemic with no clear end point like it is now happening in Italy.
ਸਟੇਜ 4 | ਮਹਾਮਾਰੀ: ਇਹ ਆਖਰੀ ਅਤੇ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਭੈੜਾ ਪੜਾਅ ਹੈ ਜਿੱਥੇ ਬਿਮਾਰੀ ਮਹਾਂਮਾਰੀ ਦੀ ਸ਼ਕਲ ਲੈ ਲੈਂਦੀ ਹੈ ਅਤੇ ਬਿਮਾਰੀ ਫੈਲਣ ਦਾ ਕੋਈ ਸਪਸ਼ਟ ਅੰਤ ਨਜ਼ਰ ਨਹੀਂ ਆਈਉਂਦਾ ਜਿਵੇਂ ਕਿ ਇਹ ਹੁਣ ਇਟਲੀ ਵਿਚ ਹੋ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ I.
14th March 2020
Did you know that Jalandhar is situated at a latitude similar to Wuhan (epicenter of corona virus) with almost similar weather conditions. Let’s hope that receding winters help reduce virus burden in the environment.